ORS
is capable of locating an optimal solution through its
simulation option. An optimal solution
to the forecasting problem is reached when the targeted error term is minimized
based on the iteration value of the designated parameter.
1 Click on the Simulate check-box
2 Use the Local Minimum check box to stop at the first minimum value found for the targeted error term. If this box is un-checked then the simulation continues to the end (until the parameter of interest reaches 1.0 by the step-value).
3 The Cutoff parameter is the maximum value for the simulation parameter. That is, when the targeted parameter reaches the cutoff value the simulation terminates.
4 The targeted Parameter is one of the three parameters associated with exponential smoothing techniques. This is the parameter you wish the simulation method to use when incrementing by the step value for the purpose of locating the minimum value of the error term.
5 The Error Term is one of the six ORS supported error calculations. Choose the term you wish to minimize under the simulation method.
6 Step Value is the amount by which to increase the simulation parameter at the beginning of each iteration. The default value is 0.01 which means that 100 iterations will occur when the target parameter is simulated between 0.0 and 1.0.