Ten Basic Steps...

Win O R S, Time Series Forecasting …

Step One: Start Win O R S.   Additionally, open a Microsoft Word document. If this is the first Word document for this assignment, then start Word by use of the Windows Start menu. If you have previously created a Word document then you must open the document by using the following Win O R S menu tree:. Solution.. Open M-S Word document…

Step Two.  Select the menu sequence:. Applications. Statistical Methods. Forecasting. The Forecasting Methods dialog box appears next. Set the Actual data input range. Choose the left-facing red arrow to roll-up the dialog box. Highlight all data cells in the one column that you wish to forecast.  For example, the range may contain the data in column L.  Highlight from cell L-four to L fifty--eight.  Accept the default settings for the input boxes labeled: Table, Predicted, and Residual.

Step Three. In the section-block titled Methods, choose the desired time-series application.  For example, choose A-R-R-S-E to select adaptive rate of response single exponential smoothing.

Step Four. In the section: Options. Observe which parameters may be modified for the chosen Method. Either accept the defaults or set as needed. NOTE: pay attention to Observations per year and to number of forecast periods. In the latter case, some methods only permit a one-period ahead forecast.

Step Five. In the section titled: simulate options. The default is: simulate.  The simulation results are based on finding a global minimum unless you check the Local Minimum box.  In that case, the simulation will terminate at the first inflection point.  The simulation on the error-term continues up to the cut-off.

Step Six. Continue setting options.  The smoothing parameter to simulate is set next.  Depending on the method, there are up to three options: Alpha, Beta, or, Gamma.  Next, set the error term on which to simulate the parameter setting. Depending on method, this option may or may not be available. Of the six possibilities the most popular are: M-S-E, and M-A-P-E.  Finally, set the step-value.  This is the factor that is added to the last simulated value of the chosen parameter.

Step Seven:  Click on O-K to solve the model.

Step Eight: Review the Forecast Parameters Tab.  View the forecast on the tab labeled: Forecast Values. To view diagnostic charts, choose the menu tree: Charts, Diagnostics, Statistical Methods, Forecasting.

Step Nine: If you have completed your analysis, print the results to the attached Word document. then go to step ten. If you have additional exploratory forecast models to execute, go back to step three…

Step Ten:  Save, edit, and close all documents and applications.

This completes the ten basic steps for time-series forecasting analysis.

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